MORE DEER COVERAGE • 2004 Deer Outlook, Part 1 • 2004 Rut Report in North American Whitetail Forums

By Gerald J. Scott

This is a watershed year for deer management in Missouri. For the first time, bucks will be the primary target of deer management in a portion of the state. Within this zone (see the Missouri Department of Conservation's Fall Turkey and Deer Hunting brochure for details), a legal buck must have a minimum of four points on at least one side of his rack. Note: A "point" is defined as "a projection at least 1 inch in length," rather than the traditional "anything you can hang a ring on."

Several years will be required before the positive and negative effects of this management plan can be evaluated. Even so, the MDC's willingness to experiment is worthy of accolades even from those who disagree with some of the specifics of the pilot program.

As always, this year's trophy buck statistics will be based on the latest available posted records of the Missouri Show-Me Big Bucks Club. Unfortunately, as of June 1, no bucks taken during the 2003 season and only six bucks taken during the 2002 season had been posted on the club's Web site. We regret that we won't be able to provide you with data that is as up to date as usual. However, we believe that the admittedly experimental methodology used in this report will provide valuable insight into where Missouri's trophy buck hotspots are most likely to be in 2004.

Entries from the 1988 through 2001 seasons will be used to form a trophy production baseline. A 14-year period was chosen, because 14 years is approximately twice the maximum age at which a buck will continue to produce a trophy rack. All future statistical references to "base" or "baseline" in this report refer to this period. If you're among the clip-and-save set (and if you are, I love you), remember that the regional boundaries were redrawn in 2004 and all figures are based on the new boundaries.

Entries from the 1997 through 2001 seasons will be used to identify geographic shifts in trophy production in the recent past. A five-year period was chosen to insure that the progeny and, perhaps, siblings of listed bucks are still available. For want of a better term, all future references to statistics from 1997-2001 will be referred to as "current" or "current trend."

Here's a run-down of the Central Region's best counties during the baseline period, with their statewide ranking in parentheses: Saline (1st), Callaway (4th), Cooper (6th), Boone (9th), Howard (10th), Morgan (10th), Montgomery (14th), Gasconade (16th), Osage (22nd) and Miller (24th.) Fans of Camden (25th) and Moniteau (29th) might want to point out that their favorite counties weren't exactly poor places to find big bucks, either. Cole (69th) is the region's only below-average county.

Moving ahead to the current-trends statistics, the top counties are Callaway (2nd), Cooper (3rd), Saline (5th), Boone (6th), Howard (7th), Montgomery (11th), Gasconade (21st) and Moniteau (24th.) The production declines in Osage (35th) and Camden (39th) are statistically significant and should be taken into consideration by anyone who plans to hunt in this region. Conversely, the reshuffling among the top counties is an anomaly involving only a few bucks and does not appear to indicate a trend.

The line on the Central Region is simple: If you can hunt here, do it!

Photo by Jeff Palmer

The Northwest Region is hurt statistically because it has 19 counties, many of which are geographically small and a few of which have high human populations. Nevertheless, Chariton (3rd), Harrison (8th), Daviess (12th), Linn (25th) and Nodaway (29th) were fine places to seek trophy bucks throughout the baseline period. Gentry (66th), Worth (75th), Livingston (85th) and Buchanan (91st) were under the statewide average.

The current-trends period found Chariton (7th), Harrison (10), Nodaway (11th), Daviess (14th), Linn (16th) and Grundy (19th) above the statewide average. Only Gentry (65th), Buchanan (72nd) and Livingston (81st) fell below.

It's possible that Chariton and Harrison counties are slipping in the rankings owing to overharvest of trophy bucks, but it seems more likely the two have merely been supplanted by counties which are even better. Nodaway County's rise in prominence is significant enough to indicate a marked increase in trophy buck production in the county. It's definitely the Northwest county to hunt in 2004 if the opportunity presents itself.

In the more recent past, the Northeast has maintained its position by tallying 299 entries, including 244 typicals and 55 non-typicals. On a statewide percentage basis, the region's current-trends harvest of 22.2 percent is 2.2 percent higher than its baseline percentage, allowing it to cut into the Northwest's lead in the race for second place.

The best of the Northeast's baseline counties were Putnam (2nd), Adair (5th), Macon (7th), Sullivan (13th), Pike (15th), Monroe (22nd) and Scotland (25th.) Schuyler (62nd) and Ralls (69th) were its only below-average producers.

Trend statistics rank Adair (1st), Putnam (4th), Macon (9th), Monroe (11th), Sullivan (15th), Pike (16th), and Marion 21st.) This set of statistics marks the first time in more than a decade that the most recent stats have listed any county other than Saline as the state's top trophy buck producer. This is not because Saline is slipping, but rather because Adair is really coming on strong. Note that Monroe County has also made a big jump in the standings. Scotland, on the other hand, took a dive, ending up dead last in the region at 64th.

The Kansas City Region's baseline county figures rank Jackson (16th), Henry (20th) and Pettis (20th). Cass (31st) is worthy of mention. In fact, most of the region's counties rank between a little above average to a little below average.

Moving ahead to trends, we find Jackson (21st), Henry (27th) and Pettis (27th) atop the regional chart. Again, the region's other counties hover around the average mark with no significant movement in either direction.

The numbers make it appear that trophy buck production is relatively stable throughout the Kansas City Regional. This is one time that numbers don't lie, although they may hedge the truth in small pockets virtually anywhere in the region.

Lincoln (19th) and Saint Louis (25th), which face each other across the mouth of the Missouri River, were the region's best bets. Franklin (31st), Saint Charles (31st) and Warren (36th) were reasonable choices for Saint Louis metro hunters who wanted or needed to hunt close to home.

The current-trends stats might best be described as "applecart upset." During that more recent period, Franklin (18th), Lincoln (19th), Saint Charles (24th) and Warren (24th) topped the chart. St. Louis fell to 31st.

To be honest, this is not a statistically friendly region. Hunting pressure on big bucks is so intense and the number of bucks being taken is so small that the opening or closing of just a few large parcels of good habitat can skew the statistics. Even so, any county that ranks 31st or higher is worth hunting.

The region's baseline figures show 219 entries, including 193 typicals and 26 non-typicals, for 6.0 percent of the statewide total. By way of comparison, Saline County recorded 127 trophy bucks during this same period.

Things get worse for the Ozark Region when our study turns to current trends. The region's ranking has fallen from 6th to a dead last 8th. It managed only 46 entries 37 typicals and 9 non-typicals for a dismal 3.4 percent of the total entries for the period. To put it another way, only 21 percent of the trophy bucks killed during the entire study period were taken during its last five years.

The Ozark Region's baseline ranks Texas (43rd), Shannon (46) and Dent (49th. At least the poorest county in the region, Douglas (105th) managed to record four entries.

The current-trend statistics offer all-too-dramatic proof of the Ozark Region's decline as a trophy buck producer. Phelps (60th) leads the way with nine entries. Five counties have five entries each. One has four, one has three, two have two, one has one and Douglas zipped.

Like the other southern regions, the Southeast's current trends prove that northern Missouri's gains had to come from somewhere. The region's 53 entries 41 typicals and 12 non-typicals account for 3.9 percent of the total. 25.5 percent of the bucks taken during the entire study period were taken during its last five years.

During the base period, Cape Girardeau (46th) was the region's bright spot. However, Sainte Genevieve (65th), Wayne (66) and Perry (69th) accounted for more than 20 entries each. A positive note at the other end of the scale: Only Dunklin and Pemiscot failed to record even a single entry during the past 14 years.

The current-trend statistics weren't kind to the Southeast. Only Sainte Genevieve (54th) managed 10 entries, and Cape Girardeau contributed nine. At the other end of the scale, New Madrid joined Dunklin and Pemiscot with goose eggs.

The region's baseline statistics (remember that this is a 14-year period) record 167 bucks, including 137 typicals and 30 non-typicals. That's 4.6 percent of the statewide total.

The Southwest Region's performance during the current trends portion of the study was even worse, but at least it was five deer better than that of the Ozark Region, allowing the Southwest to escape its perennial spot in the cellar. The region tallied 51 entries, including 46 typicals and 5 non-typicals, for 3.8 percent of the total for the period.

The region's base line indicates that Laclede (43rd) and Barton (69th) have trophy-producing potential. From there things get tough, although Jasper (80th), Dallas (82nd), Polk (88th) and Hickory (93rd) recorded 10 or more trophies each.

Relatively speaking, current trends still list Laclede (60th) and Barton (72nd) as the Southeast's best bets. Jasper (72nd), Dallas (81st) and Newton (81st) might be worth a try.

Would our results have been different had data from 2002 and 2003 been available? It's possible that, at least in some cases, it would have been, but trends in trophy buck production usually continue for some years. Sometimes - as in the case of once-proud Scotland County, now a free falling also-ran even in its own region - a trend can last for decades.

If you learn but one thing from this report, learn this: Skill helps, but harvesting a trophy also invariably requires uncanny luck. Most of our trophy bucks come from just a few counties, so it makes sense to spend hunt as much as is possible wherever your chances of crossing paths with that buck of a lifetime are greatest.

That's what I try to do.