In 2007, Missouri turkey hunters killed 48,472 birds during the spring season and another 10,857 in the fall. Photo by John Trout Jr.

I have some good news and some bad news. First the good news: Missouri's turkey population is in good shape, and the fall 2008 season should be about the same as those enjoyed during 2007 and 2006. During those years, Missouri turkey hunters killed more than 10,000 birds, about 22 percent of what hunters killed during the spring season. Tom Daily, a resource scientist for the Missouri Department of Conservation and the state's resident turkey expert, expects the 2008 fall season to be much the same as 2007, with slightly fewer hunters in the field.

Daily's studies indicate that the population of fall turkey hunters in Missouri declined slightly in 2007 to 19,979, or a 12 percent decline from 2006. He expects a similar decline this year. For those hunters who venture into the field, however, this means less competition, especially in public areas, and a greater likelihood of success.

The bad news: Missouri has been under a drought of turkey production for the past five years, with spotty spring poult production throughout the state. Wet, cold weather during the nesting and brood-rearing seasons led to poor nest survival and low poult production.

In 2007, turkey hunters killed 48,472 turkeys in spring and another 10,857 in the fall. The spring harvest, which represented the first time in years that hunters killed fewer than 50,000 birds, pointed to poor poult production and dismal weather.

Harvest figures for the 2008 spring turkey season were not available at press time, but wet, cold weather in the spring months and delayed turkey activity seemed to be the case. Daily reported that the state's turkey population will bounce back quickly with a couple of good spring nesting season. Only time will tell for 2008.

Regardless of poult production, weather conditions and the like, a substantial population of turkeys lives in the Missouri woods, and the discerning hunter always stands a chance at bagging one in spring or fall. Here's a look at where the autumn odds are best in the Show-Me State for bagging a longbeard, along with a few tactics for successful fall turkey hunting.

REGIONAL HOTSPOTS
Fall turkey hunting is a mixed bag for hunters. Adult gobblers, immature gobblers, hens and young-of-the-year poults produced during the spring nesting season are all legal. Looking back on the results from the 2006 and 2007 seasons can provide some educated predictions on where the best hunting will take place and what we can expect during the fall turkey-hunting season.

Wildlife biologists look at a variety of statistics or indices in order to gauge the health of the state's turkey population, estimate hunting prospects and recommend any regulation changes to the Missouri Conservation Commission. In the case of Missouri's turkey population and hunter success rates, they look at turkey harvest per square mile of forest, harvest per 1,000 hunter trips, poult production per hen, total harvest during the previous year, and the newest statistic, a spring gobbling survey. This last index was introduced this year, and the data will be available next year and in following years.

Let's first look at the Missouri turkey brood survey. The long-term, 30-year average is 2.4 poults per hen turkey. During the last four years, however, poult production has bounced between slightly less than one poult per turkey hen to slightly more than one poult. In 2007, the year that will provide the best indication of hunting prospects this season, production was lower than any previous year, averaging less than one poult per hen with little difference between regions.