Beringer has long since accepted that he'll be fielding questions about poor turkey hatches in every media interview and at every public appearance. "Blaming the weather's our favorite response," he stated on behalf of all MDC biologists. "After all, in Missouri, you can blame the weather for almost anything. However, in this case it happens to be true. Young poults are very susceptible to cold, rainy weather.

"Another plausible reason for the fact that our poult ratios are, in general, lower than they once were is that all available turkey habitat has been occupied across almost all of the state. One exception to that is a portion of southeastern Missouri. We've been addressing that problem by saturation releases in unpopulated or underpopulated habitat, and it seems to be working."

Final figures on the 2006 poult:hen ratio hadn't been calculated at press time, but Beringer was able to supply estimates for 2006 and actual figures for 2005. The 2005 statistics are especially important to hunters because it was the source of this year's harvest mainstay 2-year-old tom. At 1.2, the 2005 statewide poult:hen ratio was the second-lowest ever recorded. That's not good news, no matter how you slice it, but Beringer pointed out that, given the state's estimated 2005 population of 360,000 hens, a 1.2 ratio produced 432,000 poults! Looked at from that angle, 2006's estimated 1.6 ratio doesn't seem as bad.

The MDC's turkey managers have divided the state into nine regions. Regional boundaries follow county lines, but each region's size and shape is designed to highlight the included area's topography, predominant habitat types, or both. This system is confusing compared to the controlling-office system used when discussing almost all other wildlife topics. Conversely, the data developed in these specialized regions paints a clearer picture of what's actually happening in that region's turkey habitat. Based on Beringer's estimates, the 2006 poult:hen ratios for the state's nine turkey regions will be a mixed bag when compared to 2005's.

NORTHWEST REGION
The Northwest Region is bounded by the Iowa border on the north, the Missouri River and the west and south, and Mercer, Grundy, Livingston and Carroll counties on the east. This region's habitat types range from timbered breaks along the Missouri River to tree-lined rivers and creeks to large cropfields and pastures, which are often rimmed by timbered hills.

The Northwest's 2006 poult:hen ratio is predicted to rise from 2005's dismal 1.0 to approximately 1.7. This region is the state's poster child for Beringer's comments about taking the number of hens into account when judging any given area's poult:hen ratio. In fact, the Northwest region boasts the state's highest turkey population density per acre of forest habitat. In other words, it's fairly safe to assume that one or more gobblers and a flock of hens and jakes have laid claim to just about every grove of trees in the region.

NORTHEAST REGION
The Northeast Region is bounded by the Northwest Region on the west, the Iowa border on the north, the Mississippi River on the east, and Chariton, Randolph, Audrain and Ralls counties on the south. Some of the western part of this region appears to be horizon-to-horizon cropland, but even here are found scattered copses of trees large enough to hold flocks of turkeys. As a rule, the region's habitat becomes more mixed to the east with the percentage of timbered land steadily increasing.

There's no way around the fact that the forecast for the spring season in the Northeast isn't encouraging. In fact, the projected 2006 poult:hen ratio of 1.2 is worse than 2005's unimpressive 1.4. Turkey densities per acre of forested habitat are still good in this region, but reduced numbers of jakes and 2-year-olds will force hunters to work for their birds.